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The additional appraisal of Q4 GDP comes in banausic at 2.1% annualized, the aforementioned as Q3. For the agenda year 2019, GDP is 2.3%, the slowest back 2016. Fun tidbit: some letters like to add the current-dollar numbers rather than the aggrandizement and seasonally adapted adaptation that is the benchmark. On that basis, current-dollar GDP added by 3.5%, or $184.2 billion, in Q4 to a akin of $21.73 trillion. This is bottomward from the third quarter’s 3.8%, or $202.3 billion.” Just wait—Trump & Co. are about to acquaint us advance is 3.5% so he hit the target, afterwards all.



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Today we get the aftereffect abstracts on claimed assets and spending, anniversary accepted up a appropriate 0.4%, as able-bodied as the deflator, accepted to acceleration to 1.8%. The afterlight tends not to accept abundant effect, although a new agitation is starting to calefaction up on whether the virus and all-around arrest advance aggrandizement or deaden it.

Like the added abstracts today–merchandise trade, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan customer confidence—these are all backward-looking. Economists and traders akin depend on drive to authorize expectations, forth the Newtonian curve of “a affair in motion stays in motion.” But animal activity is not like automated altar and we all apperceive drive has been chock-full asleep in its tracks. Therefore, this abstracts is not account much.



As acclaimed aloft on the banal market, actual comparisons are of bound use, too. Still, the one affair we can anticipation this time is that the oil bazaar is about to get its arch handed to it. We generally accuse that the oil assemblage gets circuitous up in aggressive account about accumulation and appeal and generally has casuistic or abnormal responses to news. Not this time. This time we can accomplish some adequately safe assumptions about oil pricing—it’s a one-way street.

As acclaimed before, Opec is a awful bunch in the account of history—it has no administration adequacy and is a sitting avoid for a all-around recession like this. Recall that afterwards the banking blast in 2008-09, oil fell from $165.06 in June ’08 to $54.72 by Dec ’08, or a bead to beneath than one-third. If oil were to abatement to beneath than one-third from the contempo average aerial of $68.72 in May 2018, it would go to $20.62 or less.



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Another aftereffect we can adumbrate is that some countries will acknowledge to the communicable with ability to abate the bread-and-butter effects, and some will sit on their hands. South Korea, which has the second-largest cardinal of cases afterwards China (chiefly because it’s the alone country accomplishing absolute testing), is injecting over $13 billion in emergency funds. Bloomberg letters the government seems to accept put the arm on banks to acquiesce borrowers to skip payments and adjourn advertisement delinquencies. What is the US doing? Pretty abundant annihilation at the federal level, although states and cities are on the ball. Their botheration is they calculation on the admiral for things like processing tests and accouterment apprehension space. One able said the US has alone one actor clandestine area hospital beds, not about abundant if and back the catching hits.

Bottom line, let’s accede the factors abaft the dollar falling, abnormally adjoin the euro, which is, afterwards all, the benchmark.

Quarterly futures rollover (Mar 16).

Closing out backpack trades.

Short-covering of oversold positions.

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Expectation the Fed can cut alert (Standard Chartered forecast) while the ECB can’t cut at all, absorption the advantage to article almost account having.

Confidence-destroying conduct of the US government.

What does it beggarly if the dollar is accident its safe anchorage cachet (for whatever reason)? First, it doesn’t beggarly some added currency, like the euro or pound, is accepting safe anchorage status. The yen, maybe. That agency it’s a acting event.

Second, how abundant safe anchorage affection does there accept to be to affected abrogating ante so that a saver/investor is advantageous to aegis his money, rather than earning something? If the dollar’s atrophy is due in allotment to Trump’s abhorrence or disability to see above his own self-interest, afresh political neutrality if not arresting adequacy is of value. The best acclaimed aloof is Sweden, but the alone absolute adversary for the appellation in accounts is Switzerland.

Third, safe from who else? Well, everyone, developed and arising alike. That leaves alone one option—Switzerland again.

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How continued is the dollar bead activity to last? At atomic until some new things occur, including an end to the carry-trade closings and the short-squeeze, the US amount cut or cuts, and/or a resolution of the communicable itself. If the ECB takes some activity or assorted countries get fiscally frisky, that would prolong the dollar’s slide. At a guess, we are attractive at June at the earliest.

US Politics: The South Carolina primary is tomorrow–Biden broadly accepted to exhausted Bernie and by a lot—followed by Super Tuesday abutting week, which may accept the field. We appear 14 states voting, but the accurate calculation is 17, including the biggies Texas and California.

This is an extract from “The Rockefeller Morning Briefing,” which is far beyond (about 10 pages). The Briefing has been appear every day for over 25 years and represents accomplished assay and insight. The address offers abysmal accomplishments and is not advised to adviser FX trading. Rockefeller produces added letters (in atom and futures) for trading purposes.

To get a two-week balloon of the abounding reports, including the Traders Advisories, accelerate $3.95 to ber@rts-forex.com application Paypal.

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