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Yum China (NYSE:YUMC) — sole licensee of KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell in China from above ancestor Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) — accomplished 2019 with solid results. The annual amend was partially eclipsed by the now infamous, and as of yet vaccineless, atypical coronavirus. The ache is acceptable a confusing force for any business that has operations in China, let abandoned a business that is about absolutely codicillary on the nation.



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As could be expected, administration said it has shuttered food in acquiescence with Chinese regulations aggravating to ascendancy the advance of coronavirus, arch to a abatement of best banking advice for 2020. It’s an alarming situation, but acceptable a actual acting one.



In the fourth division of 2019, Yum China’s acquirement added 6% from a year ago, additional by new food (the aggregation concluded the year with 9,200 compared with 8,484 at the end of 2018), a 3% access in commensurable sales at absolute KFC locations, and collapsed comparables at the work-in-progress Pizza Hut. Between bigger restaurant accumulation margins from a year ago, allotment repurchases, and a big disinterestedness accretion in the company’s advance in Chinese commitment and accumulation affairs website Meituan Dianping, adapted balance per allotment angled in Q4. Added to the blow of the year’s results, Yum China did appealing able-bodied — accustomed a apathetic Chinese abridgement affronted by the U.S.-China barter war.

Metric



2019

2018

Change

Revenue

$8.78 billion

$8.42 billion

4%

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Operating expenses

$7.88 billion

$7.47 billion

5%

Earnings per allotment (EPS)

$1.84

$1.79

3%

Adjusted EPS

$1.88

$1.53

23%

KFC restaurant margin

17.8%

17.9%

(0.1 pp)

Pizza Hut restaurant margin

11.1%

10.3%

0.8 pp

Pp = allotment point. Data source: Yum China.

Also allowance was Yum China’s new wholly endemic “COFFii & JOI” brand, aimed at the beginning coffee ability in China, actuality led by the amplification of Starbucks and Luckin Coffee. Administration said it now has 53 COFFii & JOI locations in 10 cities. Added amoebic restaurant chains accustomed abutment in the aftermost year, like the Little Sheep hot-pot restaurant alternation which now has 300 locations in 11 countries — including its first-ever food in New Zealand and Myanmar. Yum China additionally started aperture new fast-food food central China’s gas stations, as categorical during the broker appointment aftermost year. And Taco Bell continues to be experimented with, and now has seven food accessible in Shanghai.

On the agenda front, Yum China is impressive. KFC and Pizza Hut accept massive followings beyond the Pacific; KFC has over 215 actor adherence rewards associates and Pizza Hut over 70 million. Advance in these agenda accoutrement acceptable isn’t over, either, as the huge loyalty-customer abject added 35% year over year at KFC and 33% at Pizza Hut. Agenda orders accounted for 61% of the absolute in Q4, accouterment a arrangement for agenda and commitment efforts for U.S. restaurant brands aggressive over evolving customer preferences.

Yum China currently trades for 23.3 times 2019 adapted balance per share, a reasonable appraisal accustomed the company’s advance and massive abeyant for added expansion.

Image source: Yum China.

Some of that advance is activity to get put on pause, though. Coronavirus is currently wreaking some calamity on Yum China. According to its arch banking administrator Andy Yeung, on the Q4 2019 appointment call, about a third of all food accept been shuttered due to biking restrictions and added government assignment to accommodate the advance of the disease. It charcoal to be apparent whether added closures will be needed, and how continued the closures will last. Cartage at the food still accessible has alone drastically.

Granted, this time of year is consistently quiet for businesses in China. The Chinese New Year anniversary — which was on Jan. 25 in 2020 — consistently leads to abundance closings and bargain hours in acknowledgment of the holiday. However, afterwards adjusting for New Year’s, Yeung said cartage is bottomward 40% to 50% at the Yum China restaurants still in operation.

Management said it could acquire operating losses in the aboriginal division of 2020, and for the abounding year, if the coronavirus disruption continues. Specific numbers weren’t provided as the bearings is still rapidly changing. Shares are bottomward 14% from best highs accomplished in mid-January, aloof afore the beginning of coronavirus in China was clearly acknowledged.

Providing a backstop adjoin added declines, though, was administration (correctly) advancement its abiding focus. While the 2020 plan could get adapted if ascendancy efforts persist, Yum China still expects to absorb $500 actor to $550 actor this year to accessible addition 800 to 850 food (excluding any abiding closures). That’s up from the $435 actor in basic expenditures shelled out in 2019.

Things could get asperous for the banal over the abutting few weeks or months, but the abiding angle still looks aflush for Yum China. I’m captivation off authoritative any new purchases for now, but may change my apperception already there’s added accuracy on the specific banking appulse on the business from coronavirus.

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